2008-05-01

China will be more powerful ($$$) than the United States in 7 years

This is the kind of thing you know in the back of your mind, but when you read it you are nonetheless shocked. The Beijing Olympics are a metaphor for China's regained dominance. Well, it was a fun ride for the U.S. while it lasted.

FTA:

Angus Maddison's forecast (which uses purchasing power parity) isn't built on outlandish assumptions. He assumes China's growth will slow way down year by year, and America's will average about 2.6% annually, which seems reasonable. But because China has grown so stupendously during the past decade, it should still be able to take the crown in just seven more years.

If that happens, America will close out a 125-year run as the No. 1 economy. We assumed the title in 1890 from - guess who. Britain? France? No. The world's largest economy until 1890 was China's. That's why Maddison says he expects China to "resume its natural role as the world's largest economy by 2015." That scenario makes sense.



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